Where Did the First-Time Buyers Go?
What a national housing shortage means for buyers and sellers right here in Nassau and Duval Counties
| Florida Georgia Connection Team | Iron Valley Real Estate of North Florida | March 2026
If you've noticed fewer young faces at open houses lately, you're not imagining it. Across the country and right here along the Florida-Georgia corridor, a generation of would-be first-time buyers is stuck on the sidelines. And the reasons are complicated, local, and very real.
According to a new report from Realtor.com, the U.S. housing shortage swelled to 4.03 million units in 2025. Builders started about 1.36 million new homes, but roughly 1.4 million new households formed, leaving construction about 50,000 units short for the year alone and pushing the cumulative deficit even higher.
"The South had the largest number of missing millennial and Gen Z households in 2025 — and our corner of Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia is right in the middle of it."
That is a national story, but it lands close to home. The South as a region actually saw the most new household formations in the country last year, which tells you demand is here. Families want to put down roots in places like Fernandina Beach, Yulee, Jacksonville, and across the Georgia line in Camden and Brantley counties. But for many younger adults, the math just is not working out yet.
What's Keeping Buyers Out?
The recommended income to purchase a median-priced starter home hit around $86,000 last year, while the typical down payment averaged 14.4% of the purchase price. For a young professional or a young family earning closer to $55,000 to $65,000, a pretty typical wage for many in our area, that gap is significant.
Many millennials and Gen Z buyers are doing what people do when they cannot afford to move: they stay put. Living with parents, splitting costs with roommates, or doubling up with extended family. Economists call these "missing households" — people who would have formed their own household under normal market conditions but have not been able to yet. We see them every day, often as clients who are almost ready but need a little more runway to get there.
Why This Matters for Sellers Here, Too
Here is the ripple effect that does not always make headlines: when first-time buyers cannot buy, the whole ladder stalls. The young buyer who cannot purchase your neighbor's starter home means your neighbor cannot move up to a larger home, and that seller then cannot free up the next property either. Inventory stays tight at every price point.
In markets like ours, where Amelia Island attracts luxury buyers and Yulee is growing fast with new construction, that pressure is real. We have buyers ready to move up but fewer listings to move into. And we have a growing pool of younger renters who are building savings and watching the market carefully, waiting for their moment.
What We're Doing About It
At the Florida Georgia Connection Team, we work with buyers at every stage, including the ones who are not quite ready yet. We talk about down payment assistance programs, help with realistic timelines for saving, and make sure our clients understand all the options available in this market, including new construction opportunities in Nassau County and across the Georgia border.
If you are a younger buyer wondering if homeownership is even possible right now, let's talk. The answer is often more encouraging than the headlines suggest. And if you are a seller wondering what this means for your listing, we have that conversation too. This market rewards preparation and the right guidance.
Ready to Talk Through Your Options?
Whether you are buying your first home, selling and moving up, or just exploring what is possible in today's market, the Florida Georgia Connection Team is here. Reach out to our team at Iron Valley Real Estate of North Florida and let's make a plan together.
Source: Realtor.com via Florida Realtors, March 2026. Data reflects 2025 national housing market conditions.